Jun. 30, 2006 - 20:00 MDT

PROBABBLY

When push comes to shove, 'tall depends on who's pushin' and who's shovin' - right ?

An article by Aaron C. Davis of The Associated Press in this morning's Rocky Mountain News gives an idea of the state of the Border Patrol. Quoted in full here:

LESS THAN HALF OF PLANNNED TROOPS ON BORDER

States say they have other worries, can't commit guardsmen

SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- "The Bush administration has been unable to muster even half of the 2,500 Natioal Guardsmen it planned to have on the Mexican border by the end of June."

"As of Thursday, the next-to-last day of the month, fewer than 1,000 troops were in place, according to military officials in the four border states of Texas, California, New Mexico and Arizona."

"President Bush's plan called for all 50 states to send troops."

"But only 10 states -- including the four border states -- have signed commitments."

"Some state offcials have argued that they cannot free up Guardsmen because of flooding in the East, wildfires in the West or the prospect of hurricanes in the South."

"It's not a combat priority. It is a volunteer mission," said Kristine Munn, spokeswoman for the National Guard Bureau, an arm of the Pentagon, "so it's a question of balancing the needs of the Border Patrol with the needs of 54 states and territories, and all those balls roll in different directions."

"Bush's plan for stemming illegal immigration by using National guardsmen in a support role called for 2,500 troops to be on the border by June 30, and 6,000 by the end of July."

"But National Guard officials said Thursday they probably won't reach the 2,500 target until early to mid-July and won't make the 6,000 deadline either. Also, they said the number of troops will fluctuate from week to week over the course of the two-year mission."

" We now anticipate major waves in our deployment. There won't always be 6,000. That will be the maximum," Munn said."

"South Carolina's adjutant general said Wednesday he wants to wait until after hurricane season to send 150 guardsmen.

"South Carolina's hurricane plan requires 1,600 troops to work along the coast during an evacuation and we double that number" to be extra careful, said South Carolina Guard spokesman Col. Pete Brooks. "If we have a storm like Katrina hit, we'd have every Guard member who's not in Iraq somewhere out on the street."

" White House spokesman, Tony Snow said earlier this week that reports of problems with the border deployment were "overblown."

"Major problems began to appear last week when California, which already has committed to sending 1,000 troops, said it turned down an administration request for 1,500 more to cover expected shortfalls in the number sent by Arizona and New Mexico."

"Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's spokesman, Adam Mendelsohn, said that the state is leading all others in contributing troops and the shortfalls are not California's responsibilty."

"The governor is prepared to do whatever it takes to secure California's border," he said. "However, at the start of fire season, we cannot send troops to New Mexico and Arizona and other states when we already have 1,000 troops committed to this."

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Big talk, big plans from the mouth of the Bushketeer including a photo-op in a border dune buggy. White House seems to think problems are overblown, and of course all the balls are rolling in different directions, much like the balls in the halls of Congress.

But, seems to me that Mr. Bush counted on much more manpower than the states can come up with, seeing that so many of our National Guardsmen are fighting a pre-emptive war in Iraq already.

And our states spokesmen are speaking straight - - - Flooding in the East, wildfires in the West and hurricane season taking off in the South and Gulf Coast require that an adequate number of National Guardsmen are kept on hand to take care of the crises at home.

It blew my mind in the first place when I heard that Mr. Bush planned on using National Guard forces on our southern border. Immediately "Political Ploy" came to my mind.

So, to coin a rather portmanteau word, Mr. Bush will do something -- PROBABBLY . . . . . . . . . . .

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