Feb. 22, 2005 - 18:04 MST

THE WONDERING JEW

Hold Up The Sky

Definitions are may not always be the same but if the actual meaning gets through there is nothing but a bit of confusion. Pandemic and epidemic seem to be interchangeable in this article in this mornings Rocky Mountain News, yet the danger shines through as the sun through a window pane.

The article by Paul Recer of the Associated Press - In full:

Doc warns of epidemic

CDC official: Bird flu in Asia could mutate, cause huge outbreak

WASHINGTON -- "The earth may be on the brink of a worldwide epidemic from a bird flu virus that may mutate to become as deadly and infectious as viruses that killed millions during three influenza pandemics of the 20th century, a federal health official said Monday."

"Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, head of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said scientists expect that a flu virus that has swept through chickens and other poultry in Asia will change genetically into a flu that can be transmitted from person to person."

"The genes of the avian flu change rapidly, she said, and experts believe the virus likely will evolve into a pathogen deadly for humans."

"She made the remarks in a meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science."

"In Asia, there already have been a number of deaths among people who caught the flu from chickens or ducks. The mortality rate is very high, about 72 percent of identified patients, said Gerberding. There also have been documented cases of this strain of flu being transferred from person to person, but the outbreak was not sustained, she said."

"We are expecting more human cases over the next few weeks because this is high season for avian influenza in that part of the world," Gerberding said."

"Although cases of human-to-human transmission have been rare, "our assessment is that this is a very high threat."

"The avian flu now spreading in Asia is part of what is called the H1 family of flu viruses."

"Each time we see a new H1 antigen emerge, we experience a pandemic of influenza," Gerberding said. In 1918, H1 appeared and millions died worldwide. In 1957, the Asian flu was an H2, and the Hong Kong flu in 1968 was an H3."

"No previous appearance of the H1-type of avian viruses is anything like the H5 now rampaging through the birds of Asia."

"We are seeing a highly pathogenic strain of influenza virus emerge to an extraordinary proportion across the entire western component of Asia," she said."

"You may see the emergence of a new strain to which the human population has no immunity."

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First off, according to Taber's Cyclopedic Medical Dictionary, Endemic = A disease that occurs continuously in a particular population, but have low mortality, as measles. Used in contrast to epidemic.

Then there is, Epidemic = Appearance of an infectious disease or condition that attacks many people at the same time in the same geographical area.

Worst of all is Pandemic = A disease affecting the majority of the oppulation of a large region, or a disease that is epidemic at the same time in many different parts of the world.

What this article tells me is that avian flu is dangerous, can be transmitted to humans and much like most flu viruses mutates rapidly and dangerously, therefore posing a possible mutation that will make it highly contagious to humans and also possible mortality rate be very high.

I do have hopes that the makers of flu vaccine can keep up with what is oncoming and provide the shots needed to keep us healthy.

Hopefully the authorities will be on the alert and quarantine where and when necessary and that our own population try to do things that build up their immune system.

I guess that this Chicken Little is pleading, "some one please Hold Up The Sky" . . . . . . . .

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