Oct. 06, 2003 - 21:21 MDT

THE WONDERING JEW

Are We There Yet ?

We spent a leisurely day today, floating around the metro area, doing errands and visiting a bit. Bought a plant at a super market and put it on Heather's Mother's grave, it is her birthday - still remembered.

We seem to still be afloat on political exaggerations. Guesser against guesser. I guess prospects aren't so good as they were touted to be. Jeff Gerth of The New York Times has an article in The Denver Post of October 5th. Headlined: "Report downplayed Iraq's oil wealth." The article in part is quoted here.

"The Bush administration's optimistic statements earlier this year that Iraq's oil wealth, not American taxpayers, would cover most of the cost of rebuilding Iraq were at odds with a bleaker assessment of a government task force secretly established last fall to study Iraq's oil industry according to public records and government officials."

"The task force, which was based at the Pentagon, produced a report that described the Iraqi oil industry as so badly damaged by a decade of trade embargoes that its production capacity had fallen by more than 25 per cent, panel members have said."

"The Pentagon now plays down that report, but Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz told Congress during the war that, "we are dealing with a country that can really finance its own reconstruction, and relatively soon."

Then Mr. Gerth mentions, "Moreover, Vice President Dick Cheney said in April, on the day Baghdad fell, that Iraq's oil production could hit 3 million barrels a day by the end of the year, even though the task force had determined that Iraq was generating less that 2.4 million barrels a day before the war." "Similarly, Bush administration officials announced earlier this year that Iraq's oil revenues would be $20 billion to $30 billion a year. Paul Bremer, the top civilian adaministrator in Iraq, now estimates that Iraq's total oil revenues from the last half of 2003 to 2005 will amount to $35 billion.

Mr. Gerth then talks about the task force. "The Energy Infrastructure Planning Group, whose existence has not been previously disclosed, drew on the expertise of government specialists, including some in the Central Intelligence Agency, and retired senior energy executives. It planned how to secure the oil industry during the war and, afterward, restore it to its prewar capacity. It concluded that although Iraq's stated production capacity was just over 3 million barrels a day, the system was producing only 2.1 million to 2.4 million barrels, panel members said."

Mr. Gerth brings out this, "According to a Pentagon official, who served on the task force, its projections for yearly oil revenues were $25 billion to $30 billion in the very best case, no sabotage and little or no battle damage, and about $16 billion in the worse than best case." "The worst case was no revenue for a few years if there was "major sabotage and some significant battle damage."

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I just noticed a quote in this mornings paper: "The greatest dangers to liberty lurk in insidious encroachment by men of zeal, well-meaning but without understanding." Justice Louis D. Brandies (1856 - 1941)

Worse yet I think is where we are today, in my opinion we are not being governed by men who are well meaning, unless it is for the corporations and rich folk, devil take the rest of us.

Just how much damage will be caused by sabotage is an item that can grow to fantastic proportions. I do really wonder how far things are going to go before the next election for president ? How far down the jobless path ? Going to hell in a handbasket maybe ? Are We There Yet ? . . . . . . . . . .

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